Last time in Taking Stock we asked whether some recent developments – from
global trade wars through Trump-style diplomacy to Brexit – were just part of a
natural ebb and flow in the global political and economic order, or if we’re now
seeing more fundamental change.
This time we ask a similar question of the current economic cycle. More than
nine years after the beginning of a post-financial crisis bull market that has long
confounded expectations, some believe the signs are there that this cycle is finally
peaking and we’re about to enter a period of contraction. But others suggest there
is still more growth to come.
Finding real growth in the global economy –
US economic growth is accelerating and valuations point to a rosy
outlook. But that growth is being driven by policymakers and may
be artificial, says Flavia Cheong of Aberdeen Asset Managers,
who points to Asia for the real economic growth story.
It’s déjà vu all over again –
Alasdair McKinnon of The Scottish Investment Trust feels a
sense of deja vu as investors threaten to ignore the lessons of
history and repeat the mistakes of the past. He explains why
the crowding instinct of humans doesn’t always translate well
Getting the measure of volatility –
While it might not always be welcome, volatility is inherent to
the nature of investing. Knowledge is power, particularly
when it comes to understanding how volatility is measured.
James McCafferty of Alliance Trust Savings is your guide.
Can metals be made to shine? –
After seven years of instability and lacklustre returns there are
signs of normality returning to the metals sector. Hannah Gray,
of the Natural Resources team at BlackRock, looks at the lessons
that have been learned from the downturn and identifies new
opportunities for investors.
Cyclical tipping point? Investing beyond the peak –
History gives us an idea of what might come next, but it doesn’t
tell us when or how long it will last. For long-term investors
though, it might not really matter. Ciaran Mallon, UK Equities
fund manager at Invesco Perpetual, looks at why it’s the bigger
picture that really matters.
An investment story for the 21st century –
With more than 40 years experience of investing in technology
companies, Walter Price knows a thing or two about identifying
the firms of the future. The senior portfolio manager at Allianz
Technology Trust shares his insights into picking the winners in
a fast-moving world.
- Growth, income & dependability –
Against the backdrop of a cloudy economic outlook, demand
for sustainable income remains strong. James Dow, co-manager
of the Scottish American Investment Trust, explains how his team
finds the companies that enables them to meet that demand.
- Alliance Trust: All-weather global equities –
Market cycles suggest that while investors don’t know exactly
when the bull market will end, they can expect it to do so sooner
rather than later. That’s why it pays to invest only in what you
believe in, according to Craig Baker, Chief Investment Officer
at Willis Towers Watson.
- Economic cycles explained –
It may feel like the current bull market will never end. Yet history
tells us that it’s only a matter of when, not if, things will change.
Alliance Trust Savings’ Sara Wilson looks to the theory of
economic cycles to consider what may happen next and what
it would mean for investors.
Please remember the value of your
investments and any income from
them can go down as well as up and
you may get back less than the
amount you originally invested.
Investment Trusts may borrow to finance further investment (gearing) . The use of gearing is likely to lead to volatility in the Net Asset Value (NAV) meaning that a small movement, down or up, in the value of a Trusts assets will result in a magnified movement, in the same direction, of that NAV. This may mean that you could get back nothing at all.
If you are unsure if a particular Investment Trust is suitable for you, you should seek independent financial advice making making any investment decision